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Sox Group



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Base Metals & Oil today

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Economic events in today’s market:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Statement
  • UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
  • Australia Interest Rate Decision


Short review of metal prices today  


Speaking of today’s trade, base metal movement & their volatility is mixed. The three month copper price rose up for 0.2%, leveling the $6,939 per tonne. Following, the lead price is 0.1% up. While the other base metals see a downwards movement with losses. Nickel prices are down for 0.2%, while the tin and lead prices are 0.4% lower.

Total trade volume today is average. Observing yesterday, monday’s trade came out with slight gains in copper and nickel. Aluminium prices fell for 1.1%.

Currently, precious metals are up total 0.2%. Spot gold price rose for a 0.2%, while palladium prices are also 0.2% up. Silver is up for 0.1%.

In SHFE Today, steel prices were 0.1% up. The gold and silver prices grew for 0.3%, and 0.6% respectively.

Observing the indices, and asian equities this morning.. Firstly, we notice the Kospi off 0.2%. Secondly, the Nikkei down 0.6%. Thirdly, the ASX 200 little changed, while the Hang Seng is up 0.2%. Finishing with the CSI 300 up 0.5%.


U.S. Oil industry is recovering from Harvey; Gasoline prices are slipping


Gasoline prices in the U.S. fell down, as a result of devastation which Harvey caused. Now the pipelines, shipping channels and all the capacity is easily recovering and restarting their operations.

According to U.S. guard reports, the Gulf Coast is recovering as Harvey had a great impact on refining capacities all over the shore. They still may are some restrictions on vessel drafts.



Key pipelines for fuel should be restarted. The production of oil in oil refineries should also improve the outputs.  

“ Harvey dumped as much as 50 inches (127 cm) of rain over Texas and Louisiana, forcing officials to close or restrict operations at ports from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana. It also forced the closure of nearly a quarter of the nation’s oil refining capacity.” (Reuters)


In conclusion, while base metals are slightly volatile, some are still showing the upwards trend. Oil market in U.S. is recovering from Harvey impact, while this also is affecting the global market and the global oil supplies.


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Short report on Base Metals Trade Today

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Speaking about base metal market on September 4.. We see copper up for +0.9%, nickel +0.9% and tin 0.2%. All the prices pushing higher.

On the other hand, the rest are weaker. Or little changed with aluminium off 0.8%, zinc off 0.5% and lead flat.

After Friday, Today’s volume of trade is high, with 14,593 lots traded as of 07:15 BST.


Precious Metals

Precious metal prices are up 0.9% on average this morning. Together with spot gold prices up 0.9% at $1,337.23 per oz. Silver and the PGMs up by similar percentages.

This follows a strong day on Friday, especially for palladium where prices rallied 4.8% to $980 per oz. While gold prices closed up 0.3%, silver and platinum closed up 0.8%.



In Shanghai Futures Exchange today the base metals are for the most part stronger. Going with average gains of 1%. Copper prices up 0.8% at 53,150 yuan ($8,120) per tonne. Most noteworthy, nickel prices are the strongest. They are up 2.9%, while lead prices are up 1.7% and zinc up 1.2%. On the other hand, tin prices are little changed and aluminium prices are off 0.6%.


“Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1% at 52,900-53,230 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.69 (7.74).” (Fast Markets)

Steel rebar prices on the SHFE are up 2.4%, while gold and silver prices are up by 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. Iron ore prices for January delivery are off 0.7% at 573.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.


Speaking about the international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off 0.9% at $52.29 per barrel.

And the yield on US ten-year treasuries has climbed to 2.17%, while the German ten-year bund yield is little changed at 0.36%. (Fast Markets)
The Chinese yuan is currently at 6.5447. Which is at its strongest since June last year.  This suggests confidence in the economy. Most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are firm, suggesting little risk-off appetite.

Aluminium, Zinc, Copper and nickel prices are trading at really high levels, in comparison with previous months. Tin and lead prices are lagging behind, but the volume is at high level in global.

Having geopolitical events in mind, there may be some diversification going on amongst investors. Trading is likely to get intensive as higher prices attract profit-taking.


China: Steel futures hitting high

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Top 5 things to pay attention to this week:

  1. ECB policy meeting
  2. U.S. ISM services PMI
  3. UK PMIs
  4. China trade figures
  5. Bank of Canada rate decision


China steel future prices:

In the beginning, China’s steel future prices jumped to their high this morning. It is the highest in 4 and a half years. The fire might lead to the new round of inspections…

One of the most active rebar futures on SHFE hit $639.87 (4,194yuan) a tonne. This is the highest level since the winter of 2013. The news about the fire at Bengang Steel Plates plant have influenced the chinese market really serious.

“Spot rebar prices picked up 0.9 percent to 4,310.42 yuan a tonne on Friday, showed data from Mysteel website. “ (Reuters)

Further fire will affect 4,500-5,000 tonnes of daily output of steel. Apart from influence that it will have on Benang itself, it also leaves a mark on Benxi Iron and Steel Group Co.

Later the analysts and investors think that the incident could inspire stricter safety inspections at mills. Leading to production halts and intensifying a shortage of supply.

“Under the pressure of strict environmental policy, expectation of tight supply has offset concerns over weak demand downstream which is also likely to be affected by inspections.” (Orient Analyst)  

Observing the back up for this rebar price rise was also supported by strong manufacturing activity data released on Friday.

“The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index picking up to 6-month high.”  (



Safety checks

The potential impact of environmental and safety checks is dazzling a number of industries in the world’s second-biggest economy.

During the last week, China’s State Administration of Work Safety said it is going to carry out safety inspection in various industries.

Starting with coal, chemicals, moving to transportation, and finishing with construction inspections.

MEP announced the new round of inspections Starting in September. And will last till the end of March. The politically crucial Air quality targets.

Finishing, the steel production in smog-prone Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be limited during winter. Military blocks in some cities, including top steel producer Tangshan. They have been ordered to cut capacity by as much as 50 percent in polluted days.

Meanwhile, the most-traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose nearly 1 percent to 583 yuan a tonne by 0307 GMT.

In conclusion, safety checks are to influence the market and shake all the participants.


Report On Base Metals  01/09

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Global demand

Base metals demand is boosted up and supported by the Chinese economy data, PMI index rising to 51.6, from 51.1. This morning the prices were up average 0.1%.


Nickel prices were upside than down finishing with the 0.8% gain. Following with tin price up about 0.3%, while aluminium lifts up for 0.2%.

Copper price came off 0.1%, leveling $6,812 per tonne. Lead and Zinc were off 0.2%.
Trade average Volume  is with 6,588 lots as of 07:13 BST.

The Following results are coming after Thursday. When base metals closed at average 1.2% up. Zinc yesterday rose for 2.4%. Nickel and Al were up 1.6%… Tin was little changed…


Precious metals

Prices saw a slight volatility, with gold prices at $1,320 per oz. The palladium prices are off 0.2% at $933.50 per oz.

“This came after a day of strength on Thursday when the complex closed up an average of 0.8%, helped by a reversal in intraday dollar strength on benign inflation data. “ (Fast Markets)



In The SHFE trade this morning, base metals are up across the board with average gains of 0.9%.

Nickel prices rose for 1.8%. Copper prices are lagging behind with a 0.2% gain to 52,740 yuan ($8,013) per tonne, as other metals play catch-up with it.

Changjiang spot copper prices are little changed at 52,540-52,680 yuan per tonne. While the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.74 (7.77).

Steel rebar prices on the SHFE are up a whopping 6.1%, while gold and silver prices are up by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively.

Iron ore prices, for January delivery, are up 4.5% at 584 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.


International markets


In international markets, speaking about Oil prices.. Spot Brent crude oil prices are off 0.2% at $52.64 per barrel. The yield on US ten-year treasuries has eased to 2.13%. Due to the German ten-year bund yield, which has fallen to 0.36%.


Equities in Asia are for the most part slightly firmer this morning – both the Nikkei and the ASX 200 are up 0.2%. The Hang Seng is up 0.1%, and the CSI 300 little changed, while the Kospi is off 0.2%. In the USA, the Dow Jones closed up 0.25% at 21,948.10 on Thursday.

Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.52% at 3,421.47.

Observing the dollar index, it spike up to 93.35 on Thursday, before closing at 92.61, it was recently quoted at 92.77 as it consolidates ahead of today’s US employment report. The report is likely to spark a reaction from traders as they adjust their view on likely Fed monetary policy. A good report could make the market think the Fed will turn more hawkish again. This could give the dollar a lift and that could weigh on metal prices.

Currencies are recent movements are: The euro at 1.1883 is correcting some of its recent gains, the yen at 110.17 is consolidating, as are sterling at 1.2915 and the Australian dollar at 0.7935.

In emerging market currencies, the yuan is stronger at 6.5809 – another sign of confidence in the economy and for the most part the other currencies we follow are flat-to-firm. Although the peso is slightly weaker.


Aluminium and nickel prices have now joined copper prices in pushing the envelope on the upside and zinc prices are close to following.  Furthermore, lead and tin prices are still lagging behind. Good data out of China and a weak dollar are supporting the firmer tones in the base metals. The recent rallies are looking quite stretched, although there have been bouts of consolidation along the way.

A huge part of metal movement depends on dollar. If it avoids rebounding, then the high price levels will likely scale up selling. Then the upside movement is about to grow.