Citigroup Inc. joined Goldman Sachs Inc. believing in better second quarter of 2017

“It’s time to have faith in raw materials, and oil will probably recover to the mid-$60s by the end of the year.” Citigroup Inc. who joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

Even if U.S. shale output may come “booming back” midst of higher crude prices, production control by OPEC and its leaguers should help neutralize that increase over the next six to nine months.

The producers need to widen their deal to cut supplies by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs has also made similar comments, saying extensive inventories that have undermined the output cuts are set to shrink and calling for more patience from the market.

Bank sees commodity investment flows rising in second quarter

“With a continuation of the OPEC and non-OPEC producer deal in the second half of 2017 and the expected combined inventory draw-down, we expect oil prices to move above $60 a barrel by the second half of the year.” (Market analysts wrote.)

Still, bigger supplies from producers in the fourth quarter of 2016 at this moment seem “a dark cloud hanging over the market.” And also a failure to extend the output agreement which would send prices “precipitously lower.”

The bank expects U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil to average $62 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude is expected to average $65 a barrel in the fourth quarter. WTI was trading 30 cents lower at $52.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:34 a.m. London time on Tuesday. Brent on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was down 35 cents at $55.01 a barrel. (Bloomberg)

The production-cut agreement urged a change in market structure. That change meant traders had less incentive to store oil at sea prompting the flow of supplies floating on ships to onshore sites. That set the stage for boosting U.S. inventories to a record in the first quarter of 2017.

This gain and agitated output by the OPEC in the fourth quarter had an effect that would “ultimately hinder and reverse the very rebalancing they were trying to accelerate,” the analysts said. The bank expects U.S. liquids output to grow y-o-y at 1 million barrels per day or more by December.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventory, Source: Bloomberg

Factors that lead to Declines across commodities

The drop in oil prices during March led declines across commodities, according to Citigroup. It estimates commodity assets under management grew about $45 billion in the first two months of the year but gave up $35 billion during the selloff in raw materials in March. Investment inflows should increase in the second quarter.” (The Citi bank predicted.)

“Do commodities need a bit of a prayer to bounce again in ‘17? Not necessary. Commodities stumbled through the first quarter following what was clearly the healthiest year for the sector since the decade began. There was too much froth in critical sub sectors like oil, copper and iron ore. In conclusion, signs of better performance are increasingly clear, despite major risks.”