SHFE: Copper Prices retreat, Other base metals divergent

Base metals prices and trends on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were on different paths this morning. Copper prices leveled higher after the dollar pulled-back on an uncertain outlook for post-June US rate rises.
”The most-traded July copper contract on the SHFE rose 140 yuan ($20) or 0.3% to 45,920 yuan per tonne as of 03:26 BST. Around 115,000 lots of the contract have changed hands so far. ” (Metal Bulletin)

In the meantime, the three-month copper contract on the LME rose $13 to $5,695 per tonne.

“The weaker US dollar has provided SHFE copper prices with support but the decline in Chinese refined copper imports in April will limit how much prices can rebound…”

Observing the dollar index, it again came under pressure falling as low as 96.96 on Thursday. This happened after the US FOMC May meeting minutes showed some doubts over the odds for US rate increases post-June.

In terms of FOMC minutes, they “were interpreted cautiously by the market as confirming the likelihood of a June rate hike. But also showing some uncertainty over the trajectory for rates thereafter.” The main source of uncertainty is coming from the inflation outlook. National Australia Bank said this morning.

Crude oil prices continued to find back-up in expectations that members of the OPEC will agree to extend their supply cut into next year during their meeting in Vienna today.

Copper

 
Observing the Chinese refined copper imports, they fell 40.7% year-on-year to 202,654 tonnes last month. But at the same time, copper concentrate imports rose 7.7% year-on-year. Observed m-o-m, they fell 16.9%-  to 1.36 million tonnes in April.
Later, The SHFE-LME copper arbitrage remained at a loss on Wednesday. Leveling at $112 per tonne.  While the zinc arbitrage was profitable at $119.
Speaking about copper stocks, the total copper stocks at LME stockrooms fell a net 4,200 tonnes. To a level of 325,675 tonnes on Wednesday.

Other base metals mostly lower

Firsly, the july aluminium contract on SHFE fell 30 yuan or 0.2% to 13,955 yuan per tonne.  Secondly, july zinc price gained 65 yuan or 0.3% to 22,450 yuan per tonne. Thirdly, july lead price decreased 60 yuan or 0.4% to 15,870 yuan per tonne. Following, the nickel contract slipped 120 yuan or 0.2% to 76,150 yuan per tonne. And finally the SHFE September tin price increased 450 yuan or 0.3% to 144,740 yuan per tonne.

Currencies & data  

The Brent crude oil spot price rose 1.2% to $54.48 per barrel as of 03:20 BST on Thursday.

This morning, the dollar index was 0.06% higher. At the level of 97.01 as of 03:20 BST on Thursday. Shanghai Composite index stood at 3,070.32 recently, up 0.2% at 10:18 Shanghai time.
Also worth mentioning, the US existing home sales in April reached 5.57 million. It is below both the forecast of 5.65 million and April’s reading of 5.71 million. While U.S. weekly crude oil inventories fell 4.4 million barrels, far more than expectations of a decline of 2.4 million barrels and the previous week’s reading of a 1.8 million-barrel decline.
UK will announce its second estimate GDP while the USA will release unemployment claims, goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventory later today.