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Oil prices VOLATILE; firstly UP on positive expectations, then falling DOWN after overnight gains

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Top 5 things about Monday’s Market:

  • Macron cruises to victory in France
  • Euro SLIPS as Macron relief rally loses steam
  • Global stocks mixed; Europe trades lower after French election
  • Oil gives up strong overnight gains
  • China’s april exports, imports rise less than expected

More info on these 5 from: www.investing.com

Prices; Monday Overnight Gains

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister stated that OPEC is seriously discussing the idea to prolong output cuts. The extension of oil output cuts will happen in June. And it would also likely cover all the year long period of time. It will maybe even enter the 2018. Despite U.S. production and drilling which is constantly increasing their margins and profits, the oil sector is limited. And the U.S. drilling can’t be permanent.

Brent crude futures were at $49.48 per barrel at 0652 GMT (2.52 a.m. ET). That is up for 38 cents, or 0.75 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were at $46.52 per barrel. Which is up 30 cents, or 0.7 percent from their previous price.

Energy Minister of Saudi Arabia Speaking

Today, Khalid-Al-Falih, Saudi’s energy minister explained that oil market is now rebalancing. After long years of oversupply and overstressed ambient on this market. He said they are still expecting OPEC’s decision to bring the bright trends for future oil prices.

“Based on the consultations I have had with participating members, I am rather confident the agreement will be extended into the second half of the year and possibly beyond.” (Reuters)

His speech was held during an industry event in Kuala Lumpur. In Malaysia’s capital, on Monday.

 

Exports:

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries  along with other producers, together with Russia, agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year. In ordet to prop up the stressed market. Saudi Arabia is de-facto leader of all the producing countries. With the biggest stake with its individual oil outputs.

 

The positive comments and upward prices came after a long last week’s plummeting trends, which pumped the negative speculations into the Oil market. The countries who are not included in this output cut deals, also contributed to low prices. Including the United States, where output is simply exalted. It has took off in recent period so strongly, that it has a huge impacts on market.

 

Bringing the decision

Next official OPEC’s meeting will be on May the 25th. And finally, decision on whether to continue the cuts will be brought out to light. Officially.

“Oil may have seen the worst of the selloff for now, as the market turns its attention to the OPEC meeting at the end of the month.” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore. ( Reuters)

French Election Impact on Oil Prices

Some of the market participants say that the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election against far-right Marine Le Pen also supported oil prices. Bringing the hopes of more stable European economy, which automatically added to positive speculations. And implemented great hopes into the markets.

Still, both Brent and WTI crude are holding below $50 for now.

U.S. drilling continued to pick up last week, with the rig count climbing by 6 to 703.

Since a low point in May 2016, U.S. producers have added 387 oil rigs, or about 123 percent, Goldman Sachs said. (Reuters)

 

Change of trends:

Finishing with info that Oil price again edged lower, erasing strong overnight gains !! U.S. crude was at $46,17 a barrel, down 5 cents, or around 0.1% . While Brent Shed 6 cents to $49.04!

Doing businesses in the markets these days (the upcoming week) would certainly be very challenging for all the race participants. Rather than last week, which was filled out with suspicions on whether the oil prices will go a bit higher & what would happen in European market.

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Emmanuel Macron is the new president of France!!!

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The Result

Emmanuel Macron was elected president of France. Sunday May the 7th with a business-friendly vision of European integration, defeating Marine Le Pen. Who is a far-right nationalist who threatened to take France out of the European Union. (Reuters)

The centrist’s emphatic victory, which also smashed the dominance of France’s mainstream parties, will bring huge relief to European allies. Who had feared another populist upheaval to follow Britain’s vote. Wanting to quit the EU and Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president.

The definite victory of french centrist Emmanuel Macron, who overbeated the other candidate.. Marie Le Penn, will bring huge diferences to the Euro system. And also have great impact on country’s policies.

 

AFP

According to preliminary estimates, of the AFP agency: Macron won between 65 and 66 percent of the votes. Which is a really astonishing result. Having in mind that the turnout was not so high.

He is the 39-year-old foregone investment banker. Who earlier served for two years as economy minister but has never previously held elected office. He will now become France’s youngest leader since Napoleon. His promise is to surpass outdated left-right disharmonies.

 

May the 7th

Today In France today was the day of final decisions, the second round of presidential elections. About 47 million voters called to choose between the pro-European candidate Macron and radical rightist Marine Le Pen.

The belgian newspaper “Soar”  announced earlier today that the Macron could win 60 percent of the vote, citing data from the four agencies for public opinion research.

The Belgian list didn’t stated how the voters backed the National Front leader Marine Le Pen.

Turnout in the second round of French presidential elections, which came out this afternoon stood at 65.30 percent, according to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is significantly lower than the 69.42 percent of how people voted at the same time in the first round two weeks ago.

Afternoon turnout at 17 hours is significantly lower compared to the same time in the first round on April 23, and in relation to the second round of the previous presidential elections in 2012, when the  71.96 percent of voters gave their vote.

By the afternoon turned out 28.23 percent of the electorate, which is almost the same as in the first round two weeks ago. In the first round of April the 23th, 28.54 percent of voters did not vote, which is almost the same response as today. Voters turnout today is a bit lower than in the second round of the previous elections in 2012, when he was two percentage points higher, or 30.66 percent.

 

Market impacts

 

The victory of the Emmanuel Macron will lead to a higher position of euro, which would definitely change climate in every aspect of financial markets.

Macron’s straight away idea will be to secure a majority in next month’s parliamentary election for En Marche! (Onwards!).  This political motion that is faintly a year old, in order to execute his program.

 

 

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High alert in France: Protesters march against Le Pen; Euro fuss

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Finals

France’s most crucial election in decades entered its final week.

Emmanuel Macron and his far-right rival Marine Le Pen traded campaign blows across Paris on May Day.

The vote in the world’s fifth largest economy, a key member of the NATO defense alliance, will be the first to elect a president who is from neither of the main political groupings. The candidates of the Socialists and conservative party The Republicans were knocked out in the first round on April 23.

Between them Le Pen and Macron gathered only 45 percent of votes in that round, which eliminated nine other candidates.

Second round of the elections is taking place in the middle of a weekend extended by a public holiday. That has fed speculation that a high abstention rate could favor Le Pen, whose supporters typically tell pollsters they are staunchly committed to their candidate.

 

May Day speeches

Firstly, Macron looked for a third successive day to picture National Front candidate Le Pen as an extremist. While she portrayed him as a clone of unpopular outgoing Socialist President Francois Hollande, under whom he served as economy minister from 2014 to 2016.

Secondly, the latest opinion poll showed Macron leading Le Pen by 61 percent to 39 ahead of Sunday’s election. Which offers France a choice between his vision of closer integration with a modernized European Union, and her calls to cut immigration and take the country out of the euro.

“I will fight up until the very last second. Not only against her program, but also her idea of what constitutes democracy and the French Republic.”

Thirdly, He was speaking after paying tribute to a young Moroccan man who drowned in the River Seine in Paris 22 years ago after he was pushed into the water by skinheads on a May Day rally by the FN. (Then led by Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie.)

Since beginning of candidature, she has worked hard to cleanse xenophobic and anti-semitic associations related to her. She said at the weekend she had no more contact with her father. And is not responsible for his ‘unacceptable comments’.

Campaigning in Villepinte, Marine Le Pen told a rally:

“Emmanuel Macron is just Francois Hollande who wants to stay and who is hanging on to power like a barnacle.”

 

Divided France

Following, Le Pen’s father gave his own traditional May Day speech at a statue of French medieval heroine Joan of Arc. Just a few hundred meters from where Macron commemorated the death of young Moroccan Brahim Bouarram.

“Emmanuel Macron is doing a tour of graveyards. It’s a bad sign for him,” he said.

The bitterly contested election has polarized France. Exposing some of the same sense of anger with globalization and political elites that brought Donald Trump to presidential power in the United States, and caused Britons to vote for a divorce from the EU.

 

Euro fuss

In recent days,  Le Pen has sought to play down the importance of an exit from the euro – the part of her campaign platform that is the least popular with voters.

In conclusion, in her speech lasting nearly an hour Today, she made no reference to the single currency. While devoting most of it to slamming her centrist rival and billing him as the candidate of the establishment.

“I want France to get its independence back by negotiating with Brussels the return of our sovereignty.”

Also, referring to her plan to hold a referendum on whether France should remain in the EU, she said: “The French people will decide.”

 

 

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Protesters Masks:

Protesters wearing masks of French presidential candidates. Emmanuel Macron (L) and Marine Le Pen depicted as the Grim Reaper lead a march marking the annual May Day workers’ rally in Marseille, southern France, on May 1, 2017. (Photo Source: CNBC)

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