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Grasberg Mine disputes & Valuation

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Country’s point of view

Indonesia explains who got the better outcome in deals for future of the Grasberg copper mine.

Freeport agreed to divest a 51 percent stake the world’s second-biggest copper mine.

Firstly, right after the deals were concluded, Indonesia’s Energy and Finance Ministries posted on social media #FreeportTaatIndo

nesiaBerdaulat. Meaning “Freeport is submissive, Indonesia is a sovereign state”.

This grandiloquent statement explains Indonesian view of the subject. The country claims that dispute over Freeport was all about outflowing the country’s rights about mineral resources

Secondly, Indonesia feels it has a legit victory over this dispute pointing at nationalist sentiment. But having a further look at the matter, it is highly possible that additional “fights” with Freeport will take their place.

“The Phoenix, Arizona-based company explains it will divest 51 percent of PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) and build a second smelter at Grasberg, in the eastern province of Papua.  And will also commit to invest up to $20 billion in the mine. “ (Reuters)

 

Freeport’s Angle

Following, Freeport can immediately apply for a decade of further operations. Beginning in 2021, potentially lasting till 2041. Paying tax & royalty rates during that term.

“While there are a lot of issues still to be worked on, politically this is a win for the government.” (Analyst at Jakarta-based Concord Consultin)

“It has taken on a big U.S. firm and appears to have won.” (Reuters)

Going through the Last year, Freeport offered a 10.64 percent stake in PT-FI. These values the mine at $16.2 billion while the government counter-offered at $630 million.

Freeport assumes that any Grasberg valuation should include the mineral resource. On the other hand Indonesia stays clear about the attitude that resource is essentially held by the country. Certainly not by the mine operator.

“There’s more reserves there than up to 2041 – these aren’t theirs.” (Indonesia’s Energy Minister.)

Freeport has to sell 41.64 percent of PT-FI to reach the divestment target. Adding to a 9.36 percent share the government already holds.

 

Future

Indonesia hopes that the divestment would be made in one block rather than spread out and would be completed by the end of 2018.

While the company will be appointed to calculate the divestment valuation.

As Fajar Hari Sampurno said, the government is forming a consortium involving the central government and regional administrations to purchase the stake.

“The consortium will look for funding sources – it could be from equity, loans, obligations (or) pension funds.” (Reuters)

Under the law of Indonesia, the central government would have the first claim to the PT-FI stake. Followed by the country’s regional governments. State-owned enterprise or regional government enterprises would be next in line followed by private companies or a public offering for the stake.

Richard Adkerson (FP CEO)  said on Tuesday that “PT-FI shares are what we’re talking about with divestment.” And that after 2022 “PT-FI will retain its 60 percent interest in the joint venture.”

Shares of Freeport, the world’s biggest publicly listed copper miner, have dropped 6.3 percent in the two days since the announcement, closing at $14.56 on Wednesday. 

Further agitation will show the real outcomes. It is up to the Country’s decisions and aims to keep the mineral resources. It certainly is better if energy stays controlled by official organs.

 

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New Mining deals: Indonesian government & PT Freeport Indonesia

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Intro

Indonesian Energy Minister announced on Tuesday that Indonesia highly expects to conclude the deals with Freeport McMoRan Inc. About operating in one of their biggest copper mines in Papua. The cooperation should take place in the upcoming decades.

The country’s mining and energy minister announced these ideas.

Speaking about the U.S. deals with Indonesia, the country’s mining giant was in a slight quarrel with Indonesia over the rights at Grasberg mine. This dispute is making huge costs for both sides, and these are estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars.

When reporters asked Minister Ignasius Jonan about the status of current deals & negotiations, he said:

“I expect to have a conclusion this month!” (Jonan says for Reuters) 

 

Mining Permits 

In July this year, Richard Adkerson (FPT CEO) said he for sure expects to conclude this special mining permit before October this year.

“Jonan said, when they finalize the agreement,  and allow Freeport all the needed permits.. They could apply for two 10-year permit extensions to mine at Grasberg beyond 2021.” (Reuters)

Regarding the new rules in Indonesia: Miners have to divest 51% stake, pay taxes and royalties. And in the end they have to relinquish arbitration rights. Freeport insists on all participants to follow these rules.

Reporters asked Mr Jonan did Freeport accepted these 51% divestment, and he said:

“Well if they don’t, they can go. We don’t negotiate that.” (Jonan for Reuters)

 

Real Inside Relations

With the beginning of current year Freeport said talks are in blind alley, and reminded they could do lots of damage for both sides. Then The government explained that they could solve this subject even in court if necessary.

“We will listen. We will accommodate as much as we can, but we cannot accommodate something that is clearly written in the law.” (Jonan for Reuters)

Clearly he wanted to emphasize their willingness to cooperate, but only in the possibilities of legal deals.

Riza Pratama (FT spokesman) said the negotiations with the government are ongoing. And they will soon be concluded clearly if both sides respect the main point.

“(The) four issues in the negotiations are one package deal. Divestment is one of the four issues.”

Real effects

Is he concerned that these happenings could result with some agitated movement inside Papua mine… Pratama says: “I don’t think so … it’s an internal labor issue inside Freeport’s operations.”

 

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Elliott’s BHP acquisition: Dividends Yes; Total Victory – Not yet;

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Who lightened the area?

Firstly, if we observe the subject closely, it is inviting to consider BHP Billiton as the one who gouged into demands by Elliott Advisors. As well they seem to have together agreed about selling BHP’s U.S. onshore oil & gas business.

The main thing to mention is that in an official letter from April, Elliott had 3 major points. Two of which were depriving the U.S. shale assets and pushing up the shareholder returns.

But the thing we ask ourselves is, whether the BHP’s decision was firmly inspired by Elliott.. Or it would have happened either way.

Observing the dividends, it is clear that BHP would follow it’s bigger fellow Rio Tinto moves. Trying to return as much cash as possible to their investors. In particular the huge boost of free cash flow coming from higher prices of their base: Iron ore and Coal.

 

Overview

Last Tuesday BHP said that it would triple its final dividend to $0.43 a share. Which is slightly below the expectations of analysts.

”The world’s largest mining company also posted a five-fold rise in annual underlying profit to $6.7 billion for the year to June 30, which was below the market consensus for earnings of around $7.4 billion. (Reuters)”

It could be argued the increase in the dividend was generous.

Second thing worth mentioning, is that BHP decided to pay down net debt. The debt was at the beggining reduced at $10 billion, and this move is definitely to strengthen the company’s balance sheet.

Furthermore, it is possible that Elliott would have preferred the FCF being generated by BHP & used for a share buyback. Makes it much more effective than being used in cutting debt.

“We have determined that our onshore U.S. assets are non-core.”

“We are actively pursuing options to exit these assets for value.” BHP said in its results presentation (Reuters)

Elliott definitely deserves credits for finding a way to enter BHP’s underperforming assets. It is also clear that at some point they saw that $20 investment in shale, made 6 years ago, was not the greatest move they made.

 

Investors Aims

What is likely to be of more relevance to Elliott, and other investors, is how sustainable are BHP’s increased dividends.

When making a commentary, the company was very cautious. Stating that Crude Oil prices will trend higher. Steel demand will slightly grow. While the cost curve for the iron ore is going to continue flattening.

BHP is seeing a slight uncertainty in China’s metallurgical coal; but the outlook for overseas market is in all positive.

In tanto, it seems that BHP isn’t expecting the prices of its major commodities to rally strong. But, it equally it is not forecasting any important declines.

In conclusion, the company should remain a strong generator of cash.  Adding & assuming it remains committed to capital discipline. Returns to main shareholders can increase. But, it’s highly unlikely that the massive jump in dividends, as the one from June 30th will repeat soon…

 

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One-fifth of Mongolia to be opened for digging

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Mining industry executives expect new mining boom in Mongolia. It is going to start very soon. It will open about 21% of country’s territory. Which is more than one-fifth, in order to explore its mining potential.

Mongolia goes through financial IMF-led bailout. And it currently removed the main obstacle of $5.5 million which was affecting its economy. It was a Mongolian banking law, that had required big companies to refer their sales revenues from foreign investments through Mongolian banks. Later it made a proposal to explore wider area of Mongolian territory.

 

Reforms

 

Reform, followed by further steps, all in order to open the mining sector, would definitely see the industry & investment grow.

“It is an important thing for Mongolia as a whole. I think the reaction and the commitment you are seeing from the Mongolian government over the last two weeks to repeal this tax, it shows its firm commitment to really get the foreign investments going and particularly that is very much settled on the mineral exploration and the mining industry in Mongolia.” Andrew Stewart, CEO of Xanadu Mines said.

By some CNBC reports, Stewart also spoke about Xanadu’s flagship Kharmagtai project. Its location is 120km south of Oyu Tolgoi. And it demonstrates that Mongolia offers increasingly favorable odds for discovering significant copper and gold deposits. When compared to mature mining jurisdictions, for example Canada & Australia.

IMF data shows that the economy only grew 1 percent in 2016 from 2.4 percent in 2015.

 

Numbers

By exploration, and Mongolian government efforts given in the mining potential, the country can meliorate its economy. Rise its GDP and of course the economic security which follows. Dashdorj was said to have remarked that the landlocked country bordering China and Russia and among the top 20 countries by landmass needs to take the step to resolve economic woes that go back several years.

Encouraging exploration is crucial for the healthy mining industry. When government gives the effort in structural changes in the industry there exists a great platform on which country can establish its capacities.

 

Mongolia’s growth in 2H17 and 2018

Mongolia’s growth will definitely accelerate this year. Supported by these huge mining investments. Info are coming from Asian Development Bank and its 2017 Outlook report. The forecast says growth will accelerate 2.5% this year, but will be around 2% in 2018. Followed by the base effect of upsurge in coal production in 2017.

This is based on the assumption that investment in the second phase of Oyu Tolgoi mine will rise from $200 million last year to $1 billion in 2017 and $1.2 billion in 2018.

While Oyu Tolgoi is Mongolia’s highest profile mining operation, the country plays host to a number of the copper, gold and coal mines.

Mongolia is a country richly provided with mineral resources.  The Erdenet Copper Mine has been operating for several decades and the indications are that there is still a number of decades of mine life to come.

 

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