Week Ahead: Forecasts and Expectations

Short recollection of the past week:

Firstly, “Things have been fairly quiet today and for the last few days, but it is starting to pick up as we head into May.”

Friday: “Copper hit highs of 5,750 per tonne today and finished trading up $43 on yesterday’s close. Nickel bounced back from a decline earlier in the week with a price hike of $120 per tonne, while tin sits just $100 shy of the $20,000 per tonne mark.

Secondly, “Over the past month, copper inventories [on the LME] have fallen over 16%, while zinc is down 9%, lead 8% and aluminium 6%. All have had recent supply disruptions which may have impacted this.”

Thirdly, “Base metals bounced overnight with volumes improving compared with earlier this week, although lead and nickel are the only metals to register above average turnover.” (inspired by Metal Bulletin)

Next Week:

Following, this is the list of next Week’s happenings along with the dates they will happen on.(inspired by )


Monday, May 1:

  • The US Commerce Department reports personal spending. Economists project an increase since March, as they expect improvement in demand at the end of a disappointing quarter.
  • ISM Manufacturing: Economists anticipate a report that US manufacturing growth slowed in April, after doing so during March as well. That’s after rapidly advancing to a 2.5 year-high in February. Could equities follow?
  • US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be interviewed by Fox at the Milken Institute Conference. Note: Mnuchin has been partially responsible for the dollar’s decline this year. Also he repeatedly expressed that too strong a dollar may hurt short-term economic growth in the US.


Tuesday, May 2:

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision. Its benchmark interest rate has remained unchanged since September
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet for talks on economic sanctions. This meeting has the potential to create wild fluctuations in the Russian ruble.
  • The FOMC begins its two-day monetary policy meeting.
  • The BOJ releases the minutes of its March policy meeting
  • Economy: US auto sales
  • Energy: American Petroleum Institute oil inventory weekly report.


Wednesday, May 3:

  • The FOMC is expected to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged within a target range of 0.75-1.00 percent.
  • Economy: ADP employment for April, Markit Services PMI (April final) and ISM NON-Manufacturing Index for April
  • Energy: US Energy Information Administration weekly crude oil report



Second Half of the following week:


Thursday, May 4:

  • UK local elections. Following, Results may indicate the outcome of the general elections in five weeks.
  • However, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at event in Lausanne, Switzerland. The euro is very sensitive to anything he says.
  • Also, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks at CanCham Mexico and Club de industrials in Mexico City.

Friday, May 5:

  • Commodities: Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on futures and options weekly positions, Baker Hughes US weekly rig count.

Saturday, May 6:

  • Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting.


In conclusion, the beginning of May is holiday in Europe, while U.S. market functions as usual. This is going to be an exciting Week, and we will witness the outcomes of important situations together.